A recent analysis of 743 patients in the German CML IV study has confirmed, arguably for the first time, the predictive value of an early PCR measurement in newly treated CML patients. At the recent CML meeting in Estoril Dr Benjamin Hanfstein and colleagues presented data looking at the five year survival in patients who were above or below a 10% BCR-ABL/ABL ratio by PCR at three months.  They found that 26% of patients (195 out of 743) were over 10% at this stage.  In that group the overall survival was 87% at 5 years. In patients who were less than 10% at three months the overall survival was 94%. This is a small but significant difference in long term outcome which gives some weight to the predictive value of PCR at three months using 10% as a discriminator.  These data are being considered with respect to designing the next UK first line CML trial.